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They also traded for a reliever with an ERA over 3.81 for h

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 28, 2019 03:09    Post subject: They also traded for a reliever with an ERA over 3.81 for h Reply with quote

Last year Roberto Perez Jersey , the Astros traded for a player recognized as one of the top young closers in all of baseball.t year and had..."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsWas Ryan Pressly’s 2018 a Fluke? New,26commentsCSTShareTweetShareShareWas Ryan Pressly’s 2018 a Fluke? MLB.comLast year, the Astros traded for a player recognized as one of the top young closers in all of baseball. They also traded for a reliever with an ERA over 3.81 for his career up to that year and had posted a 3.40 ERA that season. Shockingkly, it could easily be argued that the reliever with a career ERA near 4 outperformed one of the best closers in the game. 2018 StatsRyan Pressly 2.54 ERA (2.47 FIP) across 71 IP, with 12.80 K/9, 2.79 BB/9Roberto Osuna - 2.37 ERA (2.45 FIP) across 38 IP with 7.58 K/9, 0.95 BB/9Aroldis Chapman - 2.45 ERA (2.09 FIP) across 51 IP with 16.31 K/9, 5.26 BB/9Craig Kimbrel - 2.74 ERA (3.13 FIP) across 62 IP with 13.86 K/9, 4.48 BB/9Kenley Jensen - 3.01 ERA (4.03 FIP) across 71 IP with 10.3 K/9, 2.13 BB/9It doesn’t take long to realize that Pressly was not only as good as the Astros new reliever, but was easily in the same league as some of the best closers in the game. But somehow this actually sells Pressly, Luhnow, and Strom short. Now let me preface that Pressly’s time in Houston is clearly a Short Sample Size, but let’s take a look at it. Baseball Savant / StatcastWhile in Houston these were Ryan Pressly’s stats:In 26 games totaling 23.1 IP - 0.77 ERA (1.49 FIP), 12.30 K/9 Eddie Robinson Jersey , 1.2 BB/9Pressly only gave up 3 runs during his stay with the Astros so far, 1 of which being in the playoffs. The 0.77 ERA would have been the lowest ERA in baseball out of the 530 pitchers who threw more than 20 IP in 2018 (Slightly edging Treinen at 0.7Cool. On FIP, he also would have ranked at #1, beating out Edwin Diaz (1.7Cool. For the entire season, Pressly xWOBA (.241) was in the top 3% of all of baseball. Here is a graph of his xWOBA by month: His xWOBA in Augst? .158His xWOBA in September? .161 Summary:It’s easy to stop and think that it was only 23 innings. Pressly has been a mediocre pitcher his whole career. He outperformed nearly every elite reliever in baseball and has never even sniffed an All-Star game. But then you look at the advanced stats, and everything indicates that his results were not luck driven. He showed improvement prior to his arrival in Houston, and putting his spin rate (2nd best in baseball at 3,225 behind Garrett Richards) with his velocity into Strom’s mold has consistently spelled success.I know the Astros are not avid believers in the “Closer” role, but I think there’s a legitimate argument for him to take the role over Roberto Osuna. My personal opinion, based on the stats I see is that Ryan Pressly will be one of the most dominant relievers in the game of baseball in 2019. I’m predicting an ERA under 2, his K rate staying above 11, and him becoming our “go-to” in clutch moments. Are the D-backs ready for WAR?"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Diamondbacks Farm TeamsGameday ThreadsDiamondbacks NewsDiamondbacks Game ReportsFang FoodDiamondbacks Final Preseason Projections SummaryNew,21commentsAre the D-backs ready for WAR?EDTShareTweetShareShareDiamondbacks Final Preseason Projections SummaryJoe Camporeale-USA TODAY SportsAs promised, I am getting out the projections summary and payroll estimates prior to the start of the season.A quick review of how this works:1.) These Projections are all Fangraphs Depth Chart Projections, which is the average of ZIPS and STEAMER http://www.indiansfanproshop.com/authentic-b.j.-upton-jersey , However, I changed the playing time projections and some of the rostered and non rostered player names based on who and how I think players will be used. It ended up coming in about 1.5 wins higher than FG projection.For what it’s worth Baseball Prospectus has 80 wins. 2.) The salary portions are mostlywhat has been reported, and will be similar to what you see on other sites, with a few important differences:I estimated either 1 month or 2 months on the roster for a number of minor league depth guys and pro rated their salary accordingly.I included ALL of Adam Jones incentive bonus money as I believe he will exceed 600 PA. (His base is 3M, he gets 5 M if over 600 PA)I did NOT include any of Greg Holland’s Bonus incentives. They are too complicated to include.So let’s start with the top line summary.As mentioned they are projected to just under 79 wins.The payroll I project, including replacement players to be called up as season goes on, is just shy of 128M, but opening day payrollas shown on most websites will be closer to 123.Last year opening day payroll was approximately 131M and they ended the season around 141M. So Mike Hazen came in under last year, as he was charged to do by ownership.If they make buy moves at the trade deadline they will come in over 128M, if they make sell moves, they will come in well under that figure. When looking at the pitchers, who I have ordered by IP, one thing that stood out to me is FG Depth Charts project a team BABIP of .312The last two years it was .297 and .293.If the pitching staff produces a sub .300 BABIP again, it will certainly lower their ERA under these projections. I want to give kudos to our readers and voters here.While conducting the OVER/UNDER polls, fully 70% of voters took the under on ERA.Intuitively Mike Napoli Jersey , as you all looked at the ERA projections, they looked high to most of you. Good job!I would expect the team ERA to be lower than 4.19, and really it could very well end up below 4.00, and at the same time the WAR should be a little higher.Make sure to look for Sean’s article tomorrow. He will go throughthe primarystartingpitchers and put a much finer point on why you should look for some performance better than these projections. There is a flip side of course.Looking at the hitter projections below, (ordered by PA) the team is actually projected for a higher BA, and higher OPS than last year, despite losingGoldy and AJ. (.235 vs. .251 and .707 vs. .721) I believe there are several reasons for this. Part of it is regression. There were a lot of bad seasons last year too, especially from the bench. The projections have a lot of the “Black Holes”.from last year performing better.At the same time, I think the projections have not yet caught up to the realities ofchanges at Chase Field and the Humidor Effect, not only on fly balls and homers, but also BABIP.Those are multi year park factors and it will take a little longer to impact ZIPS and STEAMER. (As an aside, the new Turf appears to play slow, so I am expecting even lower BABIP, yet one more factor to consider)Only 62%of you took the “OVER” on the OPS projections.There was decidedly less optimism that the offense would out perform projections compared to the pitching projections.Here again, the wisdom of crowds could prevail.I think there is something for everybody here. Looking at the projections http://www.indiansfanproshop.com/authentic-b.j.-upton-jersey , the team does not look terrible, and for the optimists among us, all it takes is a few breakouts, and no more major injuries to envision a surprise run at a playoff spot.On the other hand, the depth, already somewhat thin to begin with, was further thinned out by the Steven Souza injury. It’s not very likely the team actually has 7 players qualifying for the batting title (502 PA).Just 7% of all MLB team seasons in the post steroid era, (2005-2018) have seen a team have that many batting title qualifiers.Not impossible of course, but those are long odds to have that much good luck with health going forward. If you start to redistribute 500 or more PA to the lower5-6 guys on the projection sheet, then your team win totals will most likely drop. Let the games begin!
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